A state located in the southern half of the United States experienced a strong influx of retirees, due in part to its mild winters and in part to the generous health benefits that the state historically provided to its elderly residents who fell below the federal poverty line. The state's Office of Budget Manage­ ment determined that the influx of retirees would bankrupt the state's health care benefit fund within five years. To preserve the fund and ensure the health of its citizens, the state revised its health care statute to make persons ineligible for coverage until they have lived in the state for at least one year. If a retiree who was denied benefits because she just moved to the state challenges the consti­ tutionality of the statute in federal court, is she likely to prevail?